Wednesday 31 October 2012

Oct 31 - Review

This day did not have the volatility that I was expecting, or perhaps I was simply not looking at the right symbols. I made two trades today. The first was in CLF and the second in LLY.

My first trade in CLF was based on recent weakness (we were below 37.90 longer term pivot) and on a weak market. CLF broke the previous day high but was having trouble holding it after the opening rush. It is a high beta stock and at the same time the market was topping out for the day at 142. I felt the weak SPY and the longer term downtrend in CLF was a good setup. I got short at 37.20 and had a stop just above the high set on the open above 27.30.





The market went my way but CLF did not follow. It broke down slightly but continued to stay much stronger than the market. I was wicked out on light volume and then CLF proceeded to make new highs. It finally failed and confirmed my earlier downward bias and followed the market lower. My mistkae on this one was that I treated the trade as a retracement to a previous level (Friday highs) but I went against the trend on the 15 minute chart. Typically I stay away from counter trend plays on the 15min. Overall I feel it was a good setup but maybe not one that I would always take given the uptrend that had been going on since Friday. I watched CLF but did not get a chance to short at the 37.90ish pivot and did not have a good entry when we fell below 37.30 again. I am happy with this trade and must keep in mind that sometimes a good idea simply does not have market participation.



My second trade of the day was in LLY. We failed to hold the longer term support/resistance level at 50.00, so I was bearish minded coming in. LLY drove lower on the open and put in a bottom at 48.90. It broke below that level after 10:30AM. I had a 48.40 target in mind since the stock has only a 1.17 ATR and had likely already seen its low of the day on the big downward volume spike. I found 40c to be a reasonable target on weakness and entered above 48.90 with my stop above 49.00.



The downward move missed my target by 3 or 4c, and I was determined to hold my position or until I was stopped out. This determination started to weaken hour after hour as this thing chopped around. It slowly built up on light volume and I was seconds away from caving in once it broke above 49.80, but it was only there for a few seconds before it dropped back down again. Finally it fell to my target and put in a low two cents below at 49.38 before a major turn around again ... phew! This was a trade where patience was key and a good lesson that I need to make it stop me out and stick with my original plan. If I would have covered above 80c for +8c profit I would have missed my target and ruined the r/r of the trade. This was a painful test of patience today but a good lesson learned.



Good luck with the close everyone.

Sean.

Wednesday 24 October 2012

Oct 24 - Review

NFLX ->I found this one to be tough today. I only made one trade and took a small loss. I stopped trading Netflix and FB early on since all of their action was in after hours and premarket. In the trade below I shorted two tiers. The first was a scalp and the second had the intended target of 77.00.



My second trade was in TPX. It was for a small profit. There were two tiers, the first was a scalp and the second had a target of 25.40 which was 30c below the high of the day. It was a conservative target since I have been minimizing risk on counter trend trades. I usually would only take one tier of risk but took two because of the upward sloping wedge. Once we broke above 25.10 I took liquidity.



Good luck tomorrow everyone. Hopefully the SPY decides to do something.

Sean.

Tuesday 23 October 2012

Meditation and Trading


This is a bit lengthy, but I hope it is helpful to people. Good things sometimes come in big packages :)

As might be evident by the title of this blog, I am a big fan of meditation and its implications for human health, sanity and performance in all aspects of our life. As you may also have noticed by the title and content of this blog, I am quite fond of short term trading. I have not been trading for very long, but I think I can assume almost all traders have experienced the same things that I have as a newbie.

When trades go well, I often experience happiness, contentedness, relief and sometimes a little too much assurance. When trades go against me, I often experience anxiety, dread, sadness, anger, self pity and probably most other negative mental states that you can think of. After experiencing a string of losses, I have noticed that my mental energy is not so much directed towards the process of trading itself, but it is often mostly involved in the mental story lines and drama surrounding the sense of failure or inadequacy of my performance. The trading information coming into my senses is only receiving part of my attention, but an enormous amount of energy and attention is involved in the personal story of “me” and how this situation is affecting “me”. If we are able to notice this, then this is where meditation might start to be seen as something that could be enormously useful to us as traders as well as human beings.

Meditation is a word that has many connotations in North American culture. When I speak to most people about meditation they usually relate it to things like sitting in a cave somewhere, doing complex poses, sending our mind off to some trippy high state, or just spacing out and escaping from the world. Some associate the word meditation with relaxation, calmness or acceptance. There are probably as many opinions on the word as there are people.

Something I find interesting is that we are all meditating all of the time, whether we realize it or not. Every human on this planet is, and always has been, meditating every instant of their life. This is true whether we are sitting on a cushion in a monastery or laying unconscious on the bar floor. It is true when we are sleeping, when we are laughing and when we are just zoned out. It even holds true when we are absorbed in the order flow of a trading display. This is also true for every animal whether big or small. Every being with consciousness is meditating at every instant, they always have been and always will be. This might sound strange to some people, but I think to discuss the topic of meditation it will be useful to know how the word applies to what I am writing here.

The Tibetan word for meditation is “gom”. This word is translated as familiarity. We are always familiarizing ourselves with something. When we practice generosity, we are familiarizing ourselves with what it feels like to be generous. When we are angry, we are familiarizing ourselves with the feeling of aggression. This is true for everything that meets with our mind, all of our experiences are perceived with crystal clarity by the mind. Drowsiness and confusion are experienced by the mind the same way. The entire spectrum of what we perceive to be inside (thoughts, emotions, opinions) and what we perceive to be outside (colours, sounds, smells, etc.) all must meet with our mind, and when experienced by the mind we are becoming familiar with that particular aspect of our reality in that particular moment. This familiarity is really the only possible thing for our mind to do. By definition mind is that which knows. If we saw a new colour, we would be awestruck, but after the first time we have gained familiarity, our mind has met it already.

Speaking for myself, and most of the people on this planet I presume, the thing that is most familiar is restlessness. Restlessness is when the mind wants to be somewhere other than where it is now. We are constantly searching for happiness, but the search for happiness implies that we need to find it somewhere else. The need to move somewhere else is restlessness, so in essence we are constantly restless because we are constantly striving to be happy. I am not knocking happiness, but wanting to be happy is restlessness which is pain. I think that this is something that most of us are experts at, the thing that we have been meditating on or familiarizing ourselves with the most: looking elsewhere for happiness. Another word for this constant search for happiness might be distraction. We are all experts at distraction. Distraction implies time, because distraction means that we are not present in this moment, but off in the memories of the past or the fantasies of the future. Our minds are almost always in the past or the future, but rarely in the present moment.

When we meditate we are familiarizing ourselves with something. We can choose what we want that to be. When I am meditating on distraction, my life is constantly in the past or future and I have little or no experience of my actual life at all. I wake up and think about going to work. In the shower I do not really enjoy it because I think about what is for breakfast. When I eat breakfast I do not enjoy it because I am thinking about leaving on time. When I am commuting I am stressing about work or rehashing something from the past. When I am at work I am thinking about how nice it would be to be going home. When I get home I am dreadful about having to go to work tomorrow. On and on. During that time I gave my happiness away all day long, because I was too habituated to looking for happiness elsewhere, when it was really with me all along.

When we sit on a cushion and meditate (the more common usage of the word) we are deciding to direct our mind's meditative capacity towards something useful: the present moment. We put the typical distraction meditation on hold and watch our mind. When the mind goes to the fantasy of the future or the memory of the past, we gently bring it back to the present moment. The mind is so familiar with the habit of distraction that it is only natural that it will go there again and again, but we practice just noticing and gently placing our mind back in the present moment. We can use our breathe, or a candle, or any meditative object that resides in the present moment as our anchor. When we forget our practice of meditating on the present moment, and we find ourselves imagining a beach in Brazil, we suddenly remember and gently come back to the present moment. Over time, if we work at it, we will slowly decrease our allegiance and habitual tendency towards distraction and we will increase our tendency towards remaining in the present moment. The more we are in the present moment, the more time we spend noticing the sources of happiness that were always with us, and the more available we are to help others. We notice our destructive habits and that noticing breaks them down. There is no mental condemnation necessary. New skilled and positive habits will fill in the holes left behind.

This is not to say we will never have pain if we meditate. We are likely to feel the pain more intensely because we are not cashing out of the situation on a mental level. But this pain is no longer something that we have to run away from, it is just another part of life. We might even come to respect and actually love our pain because it has something to teach us and it helps us to sympathize with the pain of others. I have been lucky enough to meet some amazing people who told me that their pain was a great cause of joy in their life because it helped them love others more deeply. Their pain actually made them happy.

I know two former students of a late famous Zen teacher, Suzuki Roshi. Suzuki Roshi had fallen ill. They told me that he was taken to the hospital and they thought he was infected with tuberculosis. He had to wear special protective gear so as not to infect any of his students and he was not able to eat with them for fear of contaminating the food of other people. When the treatment was not working and he had to return to the hospital, he was correctly diagnosed with terminal cancer and had been told that he only had a few months to live. He came out of the office with a giant smile on his face. These two students asked him why he was smiling and he said “because I have cancer.” They were horrified and said, “Why are you so happy?” He relied, “Because we can eat together again.”

What does this have to do with trading? When the 5th straight losing trade in a row happens, it is likely that some pain will occur. Some mental anguish is likely to arrive. At that moment we can make a choice. We can try to avoid the pain and think of the past or future, but that doesn't ever work. Usually the intensity of the emotion spurs a thought about it, and we cling to the thought to escape the emotion, but then that thought brings more emotion, so we think again, and so forth. This is how our thoughts run away and we end up freaking out over something small. If we just allow that pain to arise in the moment, and if we meet it with a sense of acceptance and even love, then the pain will be experienced once and we will move on. Happiness deserves our respect and pain does too. This is how I think we can live a whole life, and I think it would be one with more dignity.

I am by no means an expert in either trading or meditation, but I think that they can go hand in hand. We can meet the challenges of this crazy profession with mindfulness and allow them to move us in what ever way they need to in that moment. We can maybe lessen or even drop our agenda and our need to be right. We can allow the market to do its thing and not have an adversarial relationship with it, but see ourselves as simply an extension of that market. If profits are there then we take them, and if anticipated losses are there then we take them. It is simply our job to follow the plan and let the market exist with none of our ideas about how it “should” be, because that is the reality of the situation anyway. The market will do what it wants and so will the world around us.

Mingyur Rinpoche: What meditation really is

Suzuki Roshi Video

Sogyal Rinpoche: What meditation Really is.

Sean.

Oct 24 Preview

NFLX - 29% short float, Q3 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $905M (+10.1% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Guided lower growth in subscriber base causing the massive after hours drop.

Below I have posted the long term chart for NFLX with 55.00 line for a reference point.



NFLX dipped below 57.00 after hours and rallied up above 57.00, then failed to hold. Final after hours close was 56.99. The chart below is a daily chart showing several key points for tomorrows trading. If we begin a gap close I am looking at a 58.50 target and beyond that 60.00. On the downside, which may be much more likely, I see some good points on the chart below. 55.50 seems to be a pivot but the much more meaningful one appears to have been in play for four days. During those days 54.16-54.34 seems to be the range of support. Below that there was a twice tested support at 53.00.



If we move below 53.00 then we need to go way back to 2009 to pick up some levels off the monthly chart. 48.00 seems to be the most significant on this chart. I have no idea what NFLX will do tomorrow, and I have no idea what sort of size move to expect, but these levels are worth keeping in mind. Could be a big mover tomorrow.



FB -> 12.4% short float. Q3 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.26B (+32% Y/Y) beats by $30M. Symbol popped in after hours trading and as of my writing sits at 22.50 premarket. Some levels in the chart below. A lot of the up move could be short covers on the good news. Not sure if this will carry over into the open, the symbol might lose some steam as the short covering dies off.



Good luck today everyone.

Sean.

Oct 23 - Review

Oct 23 Trade Review - Two trades in COH

I was watching COH this morninig after a large gap up. I was watching for a play off of the long term pivot at 57.50 which is indicated in the daily chart below.



My first trade is a good example of what not to do. I have studied a lot of material from the SMB Capital Trading blog, and I recommend that everyone interested in short term trading check out their site. One of the major points of their methodology is to avoid trading stocks in the middle of a range and keep to entries around major levels. In the trade below I gave in to the "fear of missing the move" emotion and decided to enter the trade based on emotion instead of near a decent level. My target was the high of the day set near the open at 28.40. I saw that the stock had been supported in the 57.70s and jumped in too early. Risk/reward was decent but the success rate of a trade too far from longer term support is poor at best. First trade shown below.



I was stopped out of that trade once it went over 10c against me. I still favoured the long trade and quickly realized my mistaken entry. I did a quick r/r calculation and figured an entry in the 57.60s with a stop below 57.50 was a good setup for a high of day target. This trade is shown below.





A second lesson in these trades is about position sizing. My entry here was one where I would classically trade with larger than one risk tier. This is because we are showing strength in a stock that has already gapped up significantly. It reversed a small give back in the morning and again moved above a long term pivot (57.50). This is a good win rate type of trade. If I had another tier of risk (position size) then I would have had something to hang on to for the continued ride upwards and more profit. The lesson here is that position sizing is key to maximize profits. Selling at the HOD was a good idea for the first tier, but I left money on the table by being too timid in position size. Lesson learned, resolve to not make the mistake again.



A few lessons learned today. Nice to have time to post again. Good luck with the close today everyone, and happy earnings season!

Sean

Tuesday 16 October 2012

Oct 17 - Preview

Some stocks with after hours news for trading tomorrow:

URI, 16.12% short float.

Q3 EPS of $1.35 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $1.22B (+71% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

After the earnings news the stock rallied and held below 36.00.



Some notable prices that are observable on the daily chart below, 36.80, 39.00, 41.00.



CREE, 15% short float

FQ1 EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $315.8M (+17% Y/Y) in-line.

CREE held above 28.00 after hours.



CREE broke above 26.00 resistance after hours and broke above 27.50 resistance as well. These are two levels to watch to the downside. On the upside I am watching and 28.50 and 29.00. Levels shown here on the daily.



Good luck everyone!
Sean.

Monday 15 October 2012

Oct 15 - Preview

Monday Oct 15 - Morning Idea

As I write QCOR premarket sits at 22.45. Looking to long above 22.50. See chart below. 44% short float, and anyone short since Sept 24 will need out of this stock in a hurry above 22.50. Will scalp the long and enter longer term positions with more risk on retraces above 22.50.



Good luck today everyone.

Friday 12 October 2012

Oct 12 - Review

Trade reviews for Oct 12

A lot of nickles and dimes today. Most of my ideas did not pan out but I was able to manage small profits by watching strength or weakness near my entry points and getting out before the trade turned against me. Below STX and KMI are examples of that and LLY was a small stop loss.











Will be looking at shorting MPC but so far no great entries after missing early down move. Probably a short afternoon of trading before knocking off for weekend. Good luck everyone.

Sean

Oct 11 - Review

A simple trade with STX today. Range trade, good r/r on both lots. I have loved this stock lately. Will watch today for 29.15, 28.90s and 28.00 behaviour for high r/r trades. Below the graphic should cover all my thinking in the trade, please see my first post for longer term info on why STX is weak on the longer time frame. I covered my second lot above 28.00 because I do not take overnight risk.



Good luck today fellow traders. Have a great weekend.
Sean

Thursday 11 October 2012

Oct 11 - Preview

Still watching YUM this morning to see if we have a move back up to 71 (see yesterdays post for trading plan). Also watching STX continual downfall. Interested to see if we break 28 today as this would be very bearish. In the longer term a break of 26 would be even more bearish. If we manage to get below 28 then the three significant speed bumps before 26 are mentioned in the charts below.



Spring consolidation charts:





Good luck on the open everyone.
Sean

Wednesday 10 October 2012

Oct 10 - Review and Preview

Trade Reviews for Oct 10


YUM -> 1.87% short float, 99c earnings beats by 2c

Was watching this one pre-market and it rallied off of after hours highs above 29.00. My 1st target of 29.60 was touched pre-market and held with some level 2 orders to punch out at 29.52. On the open it shot up to my targets 2/3 areas and struggled at 71.60. I got out when it failed here and finished off at 71.40 for an unexpectedly large scalp off the open. I discussed these levels in my prep from the Oct 9 post. Chart below is daily bars but taken one minute into Oct 10 day.



After open pop there was selling off of the 71.40 level. I was still bullish and wanted to get long off retrace to 69.60 after seeing buying up near that level with volume.



Decided that I would stay bull biased and long off retrace once we crossed over my 71.40 level. My mistake here was taking too much risk on a light volume retrace. I entered 71.65 and risked 15c and was stopped out at 71.39. I was stubborn and took another poor trade when we supported at very low volume below there at 71.35 and entered at 71.39, and was stopped again at 71.34. Minimum risk on these trades but once was enough ... no reason to go back for seconds. After this I decided to stay away from YUM unless we tested 69.60 again and there was bid strength on the tape at that level. Gave back some money on these trades but risk was kept small so not the end of the world.



COST -> 1.20% short float, up above 103.50 all time highs, earnings 139c beats by 8c

Pretty straight forward here. I wanted in above the recent all time highs at 103.50. It gave the opportunity with a clear stop below the wicks at 103.40. Got long with 15c risk.



There seems to be a new high made before proit taking occurs. First time was with repeated selling at 104.10. Later it came with escalating volume dumps driving down to 103.80. Once that finished it appears to slowly be chopping upward again. I feel like there might be some larger scale profit taking throughout the day and am interested to see if new highs bring some other form of downward correction yet again. If so then I may add risk at the bottom of that correction, or once the sellers drop off. I am not impressed by the lack of comitted buying interest and was contemplating a stop below 103.80 to lock in a bit of profit, but I am learning my lesson from BIDU yesterday. I will stick with my original plan as there is really no reason to be bearish on the longer time frame.



Stopped out of my original entry. My plan here was fine and I am happy that I held. the problem with this trade was that I had the opportunity to add a second tier or risk right from my original entry point and I did not. The problem when trading with one lot is that it is all or nothing. Generally I only trade one lot on the lightest risk scenarios or scalps, but here we were consolidating above all time highs with a clear stop level. I definitely need to use the appropriate risk, as here I would have likely sold the first tier once the seller stepped in at 104.10 for a 55c profit. The second tier would have been the long term hold that I would have been glad to give back 15c on. I have not been trading too long but I have noticed position sizing is a huge deal and the layering of risk based on the situation is what helps consistent profit. Probably my last trade for today. Got a nice lucky spike on the open in YUM to get some nice profits but making some mental errors since then. Will sleep and update charts and tomorrows targets later this evening.




Preview for Oct 11

Looking at a second day play in YUM for tomorrow. Today was a very obvious pivot point at 71.00. There was a range battle between 71 and 71.50 with the bears holding and then driving the price below 71 briefly. It was bought up into the close and holding 71 early tomorrow is bullish. Will long strength here and remove risk at 71.50 and 72 should we make it up there. A break above 72 is very bullish and should likely see uptrend continue towards big resistance in 73.80s.



Tuesday 9 October 2012

Oct 9 - Review and Preview

First blog post ever!

STX / YUM

STX -> 6.54% short float, no news

STX had been showing long term weakness and had fallen from 35.71. The fall and major pivot of 28.00 indicated here:

Levels from August and July had been in play as the stock bounced between previous support region in 29.50-30.50 range.

STX continued to fall until it was bought several times around 29.15- 29.40. Finally it looked to be turning around but failed at 32 with a major sign of weakness. After the final attempt to hold above 29.15 on Oct 8 it was broken today.


Despite my 28.00 target I decided to cover part of the position here due to committed buying.

I covered my final lot too early. My mistake was not making the stock prove me wrong by crossing over 29.05 again. I should have held for another test of 28.50. This did not happen for the rest of the day. Would be a good swing to hold short for 28.00 target but I am not comfortable with overnight risk so I was too eager to get out. Still should have held to close, will learn my lesson! Will short on test of 29.15 tomorrow, otherwise no more short interest for time being.



YUM -> 1.87% short float, earnings 99c beats by 2c

After hours buys above resistance at 68.50 and stays up there. More than 20% of daily volume after hours. Will watch 68.50 level on open with several upside targets.


Targets below. Will watch levels on open and scalp any momentum through major levels. Looking to enter trades to hold for larger up moves on retraces to major intraday levels and/or targets.



Happy trading!
Sean