Tuesday 23 October 2012

Oct 24 Preview

NFLX - 29% short float, Q3 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $905M (+10.1% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Guided lower growth in subscriber base causing the massive after hours drop.

Below I have posted the long term chart for NFLX with 55.00 line for a reference point.



NFLX dipped below 57.00 after hours and rallied up above 57.00, then failed to hold. Final after hours close was 56.99. The chart below is a daily chart showing several key points for tomorrows trading. If we begin a gap close I am looking at a 58.50 target and beyond that 60.00. On the downside, which may be much more likely, I see some good points on the chart below. 55.50 seems to be a pivot but the much more meaningful one appears to have been in play for four days. During those days 54.16-54.34 seems to be the range of support. Below that there was a twice tested support at 53.00.



If we move below 53.00 then we need to go way back to 2009 to pick up some levels off the monthly chart. 48.00 seems to be the most significant on this chart. I have no idea what NFLX will do tomorrow, and I have no idea what sort of size move to expect, but these levels are worth keeping in mind. Could be a big mover tomorrow.



FB -> 12.4% short float. Q3 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.26B (+32% Y/Y) beats by $30M. Symbol popped in after hours trading and as of my writing sits at 22.50 premarket. Some levels in the chart below. A lot of the up move could be short covers on the good news. Not sure if this will carry over into the open, the symbol might lose some steam as the short covering dies off.



Good luck today everyone.

Sean.

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